Fair Oaks, California, Home Prices and Sales Activity (5/09)

It's been a wild ride for homes sales in Fair Oaks, California, but for 2 months in a row we have had huge increases in the number of sales.

Sales doubled in March over the preceeding month, from 18 to 38, then increased another 10% in April, to 41.

And all the while inventory has been dropping to it's lowest numbers in over a year. With 42 pending sales out of the 132 homes on the market in Fair Oaks, that's roughly 1/3 of the homes selling in one month.

Compare that to one year ago, when only 1/5th of the homes sold.


But what effect have the increased sales had on the prices, you ask? April saw an overall increase in the average price per square foot from $143 to $149. That's down from a high of $194 last April.

Remember, this is for all price ranges. In general, the lower priced homes are going to sell for much different per-foot-prices than luxury homes.

But one thing is for sure... it's tough to build as cheaply as our homes are currently selling for.

We are in a market that may be the best buyer's market you'll ever see. Low prices, low interest, and some selection.





If you want stats on a specific price range, just holler on over. I can zero in on price for you, or provide stats for any other Sacramento area neighborhood.

What do you think about how our parks effect our home values?

Next week I have been invited to speak to the Sacramento Board of Supervisors about the impact of our area parks on home values. As I am preparing my comments, I am wondering what you would tell your Supes. What advise do you have for me?

It seems to me most of our finest neighborhoods are near our parks. We have William Land Park, McKinley Park, Curtis Park, Ancil Hoffman Park, Goethe Park, just to name a few. We have the Effie Yeaw Nature Center where our area school children learn. But best of all, Sacramento Area is blessed with the American River, with its miles of protected parkway. With walking trails, horse trails and miles and miles of paved bike trails, the parkway defines what I love about our area.

But the impact on home values..... Hmmm. I've got some interesting ideas on how to formulate my 3 minutes of fame, and some major number crunching to do.

The issue here is budget cuts.... and huge proposed cuts to our park programs. If it can be shown that our parks keep prices up, that would ultimately keep taxes up, as well, which means they pay for themselves.



What do you think? How do you think the condition and improvements at your area parks effect your home values?



flickr Photo by etgeek, mrmitch, and pete baer.

Video Tour of Fair Oaks, with Sally Dunbar, Your Fair Oaks Realtor.

I've been living in and loving Fair Oaks since 1979, and I can't think of a place I would rather live or raise my kids. That's why it's my favorite place to sell real estate. Join me on a brief video tour of my Fair Oaks, the way I love it. I filmed this in April of '09 during a glorious week of Springtime weather.

For more information on Fair Oaks Homes for sale, give me a call, (916) 535-0356, or search for homes at www.SallyDunbar.com. (I do list and sell homes throughout the Sacramento area, but now you know my bias!)

Is this the time to buy? What if prices drop more?

Buyers are panicking at the moment. They are running out of homes to buy!

In Sacramento there is only 2.3 months of inventory under $300K (if buyers maintain their present rate of snapping up homes, we'll run out in 2.3 months).

In Fair Oaks it's not much better... 2.4 months to sell 'em all out.

That means if no new homes come on the market, we'll be out of homes by summer. Basically economics says when supply goes down prices go up.... like skyrocket up, in this case. EEKKKK!

HOWEVER... don't look now, but there is a wall of new inventory charging from behind. Maybe an avalanche of homes. You see, California has had a moratorium on foreclosures since December of '08, which means very few new bank foreclosures (REOs) have come for sale. And the moratorium keeps being extended.

In the mean time, many owners are getting further behind on their payments. What seemed like a good idea to give the poor homeowners a break, allow banks time to adjust to the new regulations, and to encourage loan modifications, has also let the steam build up. Foreclosures are backing up, and when they blow, it could be big.

There are currently 7,648 homes scheduled for foreclosure in Sacramento County, according to Foreclosureradar.com. There are another 3877 in default. Currently only 1139 REO's are listed for sale. You do the math!

What effect will this rush of REO inventory have on our market? Well, professor.... I think when supply goes up, prices go down, right? Very good... You get an A.

So where does that leave a buyer today? Do you buy, or wait?

The answer revolves around interest rates. Right now, they are UNBELIEVABLE. Like 5% and below. A 1% increase (to 6%) would result in the same payment as a 10% drop in home prices. Shocking isn't it? So you get a loan today for $200K, you'll pay $1074 per month principle and interest (approx). Prices drop 10% and interest goes to 6%, you'll pay $1079 per month for your $180K loan! The same, only different.... no, the same. (OK, I'll throw in the extra 5 bucks).

So my answer is Yes... go ahead and buy now. IF you can get one! Interest rates are a huge component of the mix and can't be ignored. Throw in the effect of the up-to-$8,000 Federal Tax Credit, and you can't loose (only 7 more months on that one). And even if the onslaught of REOs bring prices down more, you will most likely be ahead in the payment game, since you got such a good loan.

Flickr photos by Krassy Can do It. (Can do what? Buy a house?... Call me, Krassy!)

What's Happening with Fair Oaks Home Prices?

If you missed buying a Fair Oaks home back in '02, those prices are back! After a high of $250/sf (per square foot) in August of '06, Fair Oaks prices have dropped approximately 38% to a stunning $155/sf. That is lower than the cost to build a home, yet it includes the land! We have not seen such a buying opportunity for a long time.

How does that compare to the hit the entire county has taken? Has Fair Oaks done better or worse? Much better, thank you. During the same time period, Sacramento County price per foot dropped a whopping 54%! EEKKK! They went from a peak of $250/sf in August of '05 to the current level of $117/sf.

But here's the best news for buyers. Interest rates make this the most amazing time we have ever had to buy. If you get a $200K loan today, you will pay around 5% interest, or $1073/month, (principle and interest on a 30 year fixed rate loan). Look what happens if the interest rate were higher on the same $200,000 loan.

5% = $1,073 today's rate

6.25% = $1,231 (2002 rates)

8.5% = $1,537 (2000 rates)

9.25% = $1,645 (1994 rates)

15% = $2,528 (1984 rates - yeouch!)

An interesting side note, is that in '02, when Fair Oaks prices were at today's level, the ensuing 3 years saw prices jump an incredible $100/foot. That means if you owned a 2,000 sf home in '02, by '05 it was worth $200,000 more. That's pretty amazing! Will that happen again? No one really knows. And in my experience, it's not predictable... but it IS possible.

So what does all this mean? It means homes are dirt cheap, and that Fair Oaks has been a much better value than the county in general. And compared to the stock market, it's not so bad. There are those that say today is the best buyer's opportunity we will see in our lifetime.

Flickr photo by fpsurgeon

Kids these days... They're AWESOME!

"What's this world coming to... kids today don't want to work, they want it handed to them."

Every generation says that... clear back to Plato's time. I bet the cave man said it too, as his cave boy "texted" his pals with smoke signals.

But the attitude is idiotic. And here's a case in point.

Every year Fair Oaks has a number of community service events, like an Easter Egg Roll, a Christmas Party, Senior Luau, Mother/Son Dance, Father/Daughter Dance, the famous Chicken Festival and others. And who puts the shindigs on?... a group of 24 teens from Del Campo and Bella Vista High Schools, called the Fair Oaks Youth Advisory Board (FOYAB). They work all year, for no pay, to benefit our community. How cool is that... these kids are my heros!

Zoom back to '04/'05 when my daughter, Christy, was the President of FOYAB. I attended their Share the Spirit Christmas party for about 50 disadvantaged families. They hosted a huge turkey dinner, crafts, games, a raffle with a gazillion prizes, and a visit with Santa with many presents hand-selected for each child. I helped one Mom load her raffle prize - a fully decorated Christmas tree - into her car... "I'm so grateful. I didn't think my kids would have a tree this year. It's been rough."

But thanks to those 24 Fair Oaks teens who worked their tails off, these 50 families had a Christmas. And they each went home with enough food to feed an army... turkey, dressing, canned goods, ham... wow! All donated and cooked by the kids. Don't tell me they're lazy...

"them's fightin' words!"

Trust me, we will be in good hands with these kids at the helm.

A Walk on the American River, at Fair Oaks

Sacramento Bar is the area just West of the Sunrise Bridge in Fair Oaks, filled with acres and acres of rock cobble left over from gold mining that ended in the 60's. It's one of my favorite places to walk, right near my home in Fair Oaks. You're in the middle of town, yet within minutes, you are deep in nature. Join me as we stroll the American River at Sacramento Bar on a recent winter Saturday...



And just for the record, Lewis and Clark DID NOT raft this river... I just imagine that I'm back in time to when they COULD have.

Walk Through Wackiness...A Hershey Hotstreak

"If the chocolate sauce won't squirt, try this..", said Ryan (FNTPTS - fake name to protect the stupid). With that, he held the bottle and spun his arm like a propeller, in giant circles... the pressure of the chocolate sauce building.

It worked the last time he tried it with ketsup. It squeezed right up to the neck of the bottle, and BINGO.. his hot dog was adorned. No muss, no fuss. Easy peazy....

...but not this time. It was the night before my buyer's final walk-through. The new carpet was spotless, and the stiple texture of the acoustic ceiling was pristine.

The black goo had settled into the bottle for way too long. With a few more rotations, it was sure to break free. Then SPLOOOOOOOSH! The chocolate stream gave way in an impressive explosion. A solid brown stripe was implanted in an orbital pattern from ceiling - to wall- to floor - to ceiling again. A Hershey Hotstreak. And the buyers were coming tomorrow. So much for the pristine acoustic ceiling.

The sellers frantically went into action ... detailing the ceiling, shampooing the carpet, and sweeping out the doghouse where Ryan would spend the next few nights! Miraculously by walk-through time the next day you couldn't tell. You honestly couldn't! We closed escrow a few days later. No worse for wear and tear, to quote Mick and the boys.

Funny thing, however. Just a few months ago the buyers called me to help them buy a rental. I couldn't help but ask, "Ruby.... Have you ever had any problems in your family room with spots or anything?" Then I told her the story. "Ah... that does explain the single drop of brown "paint" we found on the ceiling one time - but couldn't figure out where it came from.... Figured it must have been a heck of a party once."

One of My Favorite Sales.... Lemon Street, Fair Oaks

This gorgeous home on Lemon Street in Fair Oaks has been in and out of my life many times. The first time I sold it, was for the family that built it. I was so moved by the stories of their life there. Like the Easter egg hunts in the garden... the slip and slide parties down the hill side... the bonfires in the pasture... and prom night dinners in the gazebo.

It was built to house their gigantic family, with amazing thought to detail. Like the deep closet by the garage door, so sports paraphernalia didn't turn into household decoration. And the 7 cubbies lined up just beyond the pantry, so backpacks would have a home somewhere other than, well, everywhere. This was built as a HOME, not for speculation.

I remember sitting in the living room during one open house, a quiet lull in buyer traffic. I absorbed just being there. What struck me the most were the little love notes tacked to the quiltplanning board... sentimental tokens of love for a wonderful Mom. And her quilts decorating the hallways... made with painstaking detail, as these same loving kids looked on. There was a couch set up in the bay window of her quilting room, the favored spot for Dad to enjoy his morning coffee & paper... while she quilted.

It struck me how much love and family life that home had seen, and I have to say it overwhelmed me for that moment. With teary eyes I wrote them a note about it, impressed with the commitment they had made to family. I was careful to point out that I was not an obsessed stalker, but just someone who appreciated and GOT the wonderful family they had created!

I sold the home eventually, happy they would be moving on with their plans, but sad to loose my involvement. It wasn't my buyer, so Lemon Street was gone from my life.

But funny how things turn out. After a number of years, I got a wonderful phone call from the current owners, to help them sell the home. One of my favorite homes was back in my life again!

It was really like a homecoming for me, like meeting up with an old friend. And quilting is still a part of it, as the home on Lemon Street becomes one of the threads that weaves the fabric of my career. It has added to the texture.... to the patchwork of experiences that makes up my career.
...and I still love the home......

Flickr photo by karen