Fair Oaks, California, Home Prices and Sales Activity (5/09)

It's been a wild ride for homes sales in Fair Oaks, California, but for 2 months in a row we have had huge increases in the number of sales.

Sales doubled in March over the preceeding month, from 18 to 38, then increased another 10% in April, to 41.

And all the while inventory has been dropping to it's lowest numbers in over a year. With 42 pending sales out of the 132 homes on the market in Fair Oaks, that's roughly 1/3 of the homes selling in one month.

Compare that to one year ago, when only 1/5th of the homes sold.


But what effect have the increased sales had on the prices, you ask? April saw an overall increase in the average price per square foot from $143 to $149. That's down from a high of $194 last April.

Remember, this is for all price ranges. In general, the lower priced homes are going to sell for much different per-foot-prices than luxury homes.

But one thing is for sure... it's tough to build as cheaply as our homes are currently selling for.

We are in a market that may be the best buyer's market you'll ever see. Low prices, low interest, and some selection.





If you want stats on a specific price range, just holler on over. I can zero in on price for you, or provide stats for any other Sacramento area neighborhood.

Is this the time to buy? What if prices drop more?

Buyers are panicking at the moment. They are running out of homes to buy!

In Sacramento there is only 2.3 months of inventory under $300K (if buyers maintain their present rate of snapping up homes, we'll run out in 2.3 months).

In Fair Oaks it's not much better... 2.4 months to sell 'em all out.

That means if no new homes come on the market, we'll be out of homes by summer. Basically economics says when supply goes down prices go up.... like skyrocket up, in this case. EEKKKK!

HOWEVER... don't look now, but there is a wall of new inventory charging from behind. Maybe an avalanche of homes. You see, California has had a moratorium on foreclosures since December of '08, which means very few new bank foreclosures (REOs) have come for sale. And the moratorium keeps being extended.

In the mean time, many owners are getting further behind on their payments. What seemed like a good idea to give the poor homeowners a break, allow banks time to adjust to the new regulations, and to encourage loan modifications, has also let the steam build up. Foreclosures are backing up, and when they blow, it could be big.

There are currently 7,648 homes scheduled for foreclosure in Sacramento County, according to Foreclosureradar.com. There are another 3877 in default. Currently only 1139 REO's are listed for sale. You do the math!

What effect will this rush of REO inventory have on our market? Well, professor.... I think when supply goes up, prices go down, right? Very good... You get an A.

So where does that leave a buyer today? Do you buy, or wait?

The answer revolves around interest rates. Right now, they are UNBELIEVABLE. Like 5% and below. A 1% increase (to 6%) would result in the same payment as a 10% drop in home prices. Shocking isn't it? So you get a loan today for $200K, you'll pay $1074 per month principle and interest (approx). Prices drop 10% and interest goes to 6%, you'll pay $1079 per month for your $180K loan! The same, only different.... no, the same. (OK, I'll throw in the extra 5 bucks).

So my answer is Yes... go ahead and buy now. IF you can get one! Interest rates are a huge component of the mix and can't be ignored. Throw in the effect of the up-to-$8,000 Federal Tax Credit, and you can't loose (only 7 more months on that one). And even if the onslaught of REOs bring prices down more, you will most likely be ahead in the payment game, since you got such a good loan.

Flickr photos by Krassy Can do It. (Can do what? Buy a house?... Call me, Krassy!)

Interest rates and your home... THESE are the "good old days".

You've probably heard that interest rates are pretty good now... around 5% for a "30 year fixed". But check out what that means to you as a buyer. It's pretty shocking!

A $200K loan at 5% costs you $1,073 per month P&I (principle and interest)

If you want to keep that payment at $1073, here's the price loan you can afford if interest goes up.

6.25% = $174,000 - (2002 interest rate)
8.5% - $139,000 - (2000 interest rate)
9.25% - $130,000 - (1994 interest rate)

15% - $84,000 - (1984 interest rate)

Still wishing for the good old days? As a buyer, it's better today than it's ever been. You get WAY more for your money than ever. We will look back on these times as the best home buying days in our lives!

Flickr photo by Steve Wampler

What's Happening with Fair Oaks Home Prices?

If you missed buying a Fair Oaks home back in '02, those prices are back! After a high of $250/sf (per square foot) in August of '06, Fair Oaks prices have dropped approximately 38% to a stunning $155/sf. That is lower than the cost to build a home, yet it includes the land! We have not seen such a buying opportunity for a long time.

How does that compare to the hit the entire county has taken? Has Fair Oaks done better or worse? Much better, thank you. During the same time period, Sacramento County price per foot dropped a whopping 54%! EEKKK! They went from a peak of $250/sf in August of '05 to the current level of $117/sf.

But here's the best news for buyers. Interest rates make this the most amazing time we have ever had to buy. If you get a $200K loan today, you will pay around 5% interest, or $1073/month, (principle and interest on a 30 year fixed rate loan). Look what happens if the interest rate were higher on the same $200,000 loan.

5% = $1,073 today's rate

6.25% = $1,231 (2002 rates)

8.5% = $1,537 (2000 rates)

9.25% = $1,645 (1994 rates)

15% = $2,528 (1984 rates - yeouch!)

An interesting side note, is that in '02, when Fair Oaks prices were at today's level, the ensuing 3 years saw prices jump an incredible $100/foot. That means if you owned a 2,000 sf home in '02, by '05 it was worth $200,000 more. That's pretty amazing! Will that happen again? No one really knows. And in my experience, it's not predictable... but it IS possible.

So what does all this mean? It means homes are dirt cheap, and that Fair Oaks has been a much better value than the county in general. And compared to the stock market, it's not so bad. There are those that say today is the best buyer's opportunity we will see in our lifetime.

Flickr photo by fpsurgeon

Locking your loan is like proposing... You don't know if it could get better.

I just read that the Fed's actions today may cause mortgage interest rates to drop up to 1/4 or 1/2 point. Interesting dilemna for those in escrow who have already locked their loan. Do you stand by what you said, or weazle out because rates have changed?

When you lock your loan, you are gambling that interest rates won't go down any lower.... to protect yourself in case they go higher. So to be safe, if the current rate is OK with you, you and the lender commit to it... regardless of future rates being higher or lower. If they go higher, you still have your low rate. If they go lower... it happens.

Can you get the cheaper rate if they drop below your locked amount? Not without someone suffering a loss... because the lender has committed.

It's like proposing. You ask the girl of your dreams to marry you. But criminy... what if someone better comes along? Well, what if someone better never comes along, and you missed your only true chance at love because you couldn't read the future? You make the best decision, then stick with it, through sickness and in health. Whether interest rates go up or down.

I have a young first-time buyer who is locked right now. I told him he needs to have confidence in his decision. if rates go up, he'll think he's an omnipotent genious. But if rates go down, that's just the way it goes... it's the cost of protecting yourself. He understood. This buyer has tremendous character... I really like him. And I'll bet he's fine with his decision, even if rates drop lower. To me, it's called being responsible for your decisions. I bet he'll stick with the gal he marries, too.

PS... it's a little later in the day. My buyer just signed disclosures and I asked him how he feels now that interest rates DID in fact go down. "I'm OK... I made a deal to protect myself in case rates go up... but they went down...I'm still protected because they COULD have gone up. I'm OK." I just KNEW he would say that! He's such a good kid.



Flickr photos by Jacob and Kiki Hantla, Wooleywonderworks